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Elo gap, expected score.

Compare two ratings or enter the gap. See what the difference means.

Positive: A is higher rated. Negative: B is higher rated.

−1,000Equal+1,000

Expected share of points

Player A is 200 points higher

75.97%
24.03%

A win earns 1 point, a draw ½, and a loss 0. Expected score includes draws; it is not the chance of winning a single game.

How it’s calculatedE(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap / 400))

Gap = rating A − rating B. Player B’s expected score is 1 − E(A). This uses the standard logistic Elo model, with no rating-gap cap or color adjustment. Individual rating systems may use different rules.

The gap curve

Player A’s expected score as the rating advantage changes.

Elo expected score curveExpected score rises from about 1 percent at a gap of minus 800 to about 99 percent at plus 800, passing through 50 percent at equal ratings.100%50%0%−800−4000+400+800